Via - Premiumtimes
Barely 72 hours to the gubernatorial election in Ekiti State, the candidates are putting finishing touches to their campaigns. Except something unexpected happens to trigger a major swing in choice, many of the electorates have probably decided whom to vote for.
Naturally, all the candidates are talking up
their chances in the poll – nobody goes into a challenge believing they
are going to lose. However, every candidate has areas where they wished
things were a lot favourable than it is now.
For instance, the Peoples Democratic Party,
PDP’s candidate, Ayodele Fayose, is touted as very popular at the
grassroots; but this popularity may not resonate across all local
governments in the state.
Whilst the incumbent and candidate of the All
Progressive Congress, APC, Kayode Fayemi, may have transformed the
state capital, Ado Ekiti, into a modern-looking town with monuments such
as the Pavillion, the Civic Centre, the laying of fibre optic cable and
a number of other projects, he may not be as appealing to those in the
rural areas as he would have wished.
Ekiti has always been an interesting state for political analysts.
Since the return of democracy in 1999, no
incumbent governor has successfully won a re-election. It would not be a
total surprise if that continues, although there is also a possibility
of a break with tradition.
Apart from Messrs. Fayemi and Fayose, a third
major candidate for the election is the Labour Party’s Opeyemi
Bamidele. Mr. Bamdele, a member of the House of Representatives, was a
member of the APC until he fell out with Mr. Fayemi.
Below is PREMIUM TIMES analysis, by local
governments, of the strength and weaknesses of the three major
contenders in the elections:
Ado Ekiti
The capital of the state, Ado Ekiti, is the centre of all electioneering. But this is not just for symbolic reasons.
About 30 per cent of the electorates live here, and the winner in Ado Ekiti stands a good chance of winning the election.
With gleaming new edifices and many more
still under construction, Ado Ekiti is shedding its old looks and
gradually evolving into a modern town. Mr. Fayemi deserves credit for
this and may have won the hearts of some inhabitants of the state.
However, his long-drawn battles with civil servants, especially teachers
over the competency test, Teachers Development Needs Assessment, TDNA,
may be a dent on his popularity in the town. Many teachers believe the
TDNA is a ploy by the government to prune their number. Some have
pointed at the public humiliation of teachers who couldn’t read in Edo,
another APC-controlled state, as an example of what the government
intends to do with the TDNA.
That said, Mr. Fayemi is expected to tap from
the grassroots influence of prominent APC politicians in the town, such
as the former Chairman of Ado Ekiti Local Government, Bisi Egbeyemi,
senator representing Ekiti Central Senatorial District, Babafemi Ojudu,
to upturn the chances of his main contenders, especially, Mr. Fayose.
Mr. Fayose is very much at home in Ado Ekiti.
He is very popular with the ordinary people who see him as one of their
own. Okada riders, local market women and street urchins throng his
campaign rallies. Mr. Fayose will depend on these foot soldiers to help
build his votes tally in the town.
The Labour Party candidate, Opeyemi Bamidele,
is also not a push over in the town. Mr. Bamidele will be relying on
the backing of one of the most influential politicians in the state, who
also doubles as his campaign coordinator, Remi Oguntuase, to get a
sizeable share of the vote in the capital.
Ikere
Next-door Ikere is another keenly contested
local government. The PDP seems to have an edge over other parties here.
Ikere is home to some of the most influential PDP chieftains such,
former Deputy Governor, Bisi Omoyemi, a former member of the Board of
Trustees of the PDP, Dayo Okondo, and former chairman of Ikere Local
Government, Bisi Aloba.
However, Mr. Fayemi, apart from his
popularity as governor, will be relying on the influence of another
former deputy governor, Abiodun Aluko, who recently defected from the
PDP to the APC; as well as Bamidele Olomilua, Funmiyi Afuye, Bolu
Akomolafe, and Babade Kayode to swing the votes in the local government
in his favour.
However, things are a little complicated for
the APC in Ikere. Even though the son of Mr. Olomilua, Muyiwa, is Mr.
Fayemi’s special adviser, one of his wives is a chieftain of the LP
while his daughter is the running mate of the Accord Party candidate,
Kole Ajayi. The divided loyalty of the Olomilua family is certainly a
source of worry to Mr. Fayemi.
With the divergent political forces at play
in the local government, Ikere could be one of the flashpoints for
violence during the election.
Irepodun-Ifelodun
This could be a straight contest between
Messrs. Bamidele and Fayose. Afao Ekiti, Mr. Fayose’s hometown, is in
the local government, same as Iyin-Ekiti, the hometown of Mr. Bamidele.
But the APC will be looking on former Governor Niyi Adebayo to salvage
some votes for it in this local government.
Oye
As the local government of the incumbent, the
APC is the party to beat in Oye. Even if for mere symbolic reasons, Mr.
Fayemi will want to win here. He will definitely lose his bragging
rights if he loses in his home turf. Easy as this may seem, it is not a
walk in the park for Mr. Fayemi as Oye is also home to perhaps the most
influential PDP supporter in the state, Ayo Arise.
Mr. Arise, a former governorship aspirant is a
dogged fighter and will certain give Mr. Fayemi and the Secretary to
the State Government, Ganiyu Owolabi, a tough challenge.
The LP is not known to enjoy the support of
any major influence at Oye. Though its chairman, Akin Omole, is from the
local government, his influence, if any at all, palls beside that of
Mr. Fayemi or Mr. Arise.
Ekiti South-West
From all indications, the APC should nick it
here. However, the PDP will be getting some votes here due to the
influence of its chieftains such as Bode Olowporoku and Idowu Odeyemi.
Their influence is expected to be neutralised by that of the governor’s
Chief of Staff, Yemi Adaramodu.
Efon
Efon is the stronghold of the LP candidate,
Mr. Bamidele, who is overwhelmingly popular here following his projects
in the town as a member of the House of Representatives. But the APC
could pull the rug off his feet if he becomes complacent.
Ijero Local Government
This is a straight contest between APC and
LP, which is beginning to gain ground here. But the APC should
conveniently nick this one.
Emure
After the killing of Foluso Ogundara, a
supporter of Mr. Bamidele’s, by suspected APC supporters, there have
been a ground swell of support for Mr. Bamidele in Emure. It is also the
hometown of Mr. Bamidele’s running mate, Bolanle Bruce. It is expected
that Ms. Bruce should pull some weight here for her principal. Again,
Emure should be a direct battle between the APC and LP.
Ekiti East
The PDP looks good to win it here. The party
will be relying on Former Deputy Governor, Abiodun Olujimi, and a former
Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Femi Bamisile, to make that
happen.
Gbonyin
On the strength of former senator, Gbenga
Aluko, alone, the PDP should win Gboyin without a fuss. In 1999 when the
South West region overwhelmingly voted for the defunct AD, Mr. Aluko
who was running on the PDP platform won in Gboyin Making him the lone
PDP senator in the region. If one adds the influence of former Acting
Governor, Tunji Odeyemi, and the former South West secretary of the PDP,
Ropo Adesanya, it should be a landslide for the PDP here.
Moba
Traditionally, the people of Moba have always
voted for the progenitors of the APC. There is no indication that they
will break from this tradition on Saturday.
Ilejemeje
Like in Oye, the APC is expected to grab
Ilejemeje. Ilejemeje is in Ekiti North Senatorial District, and the
sentiment in this area of the state is that Mr. Fayemi, who is from the
district, should win a second term in office. The APC is expected to win
a landslide here on that sentiment.
Ekiti West
A former Governor of Lagos State and National
Leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu, may indirectly influence who emerges as
winner in Ekiti West. His in-law and member of the House of
Representatives, Oyetunde Ojo, is from there. Naturally he would strive
to impress his in-law by making sure the APC wins here.
However, the APC will have a hard time
convincing some electorates after the killing of Ayo Jeje and Juliana
Adewumi by suspected APC thugs at Erinjiyan-Ekiti. The killing of these
two supporters of the LP candidate will likely increase the number of
sympathy votes for Mr. Bamidele. Also, a large number of APC supporters
recently defected to the PDP in Ekiti West.
Ekiti West will be keenly contested and is one of the local governments where violent clashes may occur.
Ikole
It may be payback time for the PDP and Mr.
Arise after the PDP chieftain successfully battled the governor over the
location of the federal university in the state. Mr. Arise, who wanted
the university to be located in his hometown of Oye-Ekiti, got his way
over the incumbent who had clamoured for it to be situated at Ikole. For
this reason the people of Ikole may want to pay the government back for
its support by voting for the APC.
Having said that, Ikole-Ekiti is the hometown
of the Acting South-West Vice-Chairman of the PDP, Ishola Filani, and
the current State Chairman of the PDP, Makanjuola Ogundipe. These men
are not pushovers.
As loyal party men, they will definitely be
throwing their weight behind Mr. Fayose irrespective of the misgiving
they have for the role played by Mr. Arise in the location of the
university away from their town.
This should be an interesting local
government to watch as the LP candidate was also warmly welcomed by a
throng of supporters when he held a campaign rally there.
Ise/Orun
This is clearly a PDP dominated local
government. Other candidates can only hope to get an insignificant share
of the votes here. Some of the most influential politicians in the
state: Dayo Adeyeye, Bimbo Owolabi, Ropo Ogunbolude and former member of
the House of Representatives, Titilayo Akindahunsi, are from this local
government. With these heavy weights working for the PDP (Mr. Adeyeye
was nominated minister by President Goodluck Jonathan), it is hard to
see how other parties will pull any surprises here.
Ido-Osi
This is one local government that may go
bonkers. Ido-Osi is a major flashpoint for violent clashes during
elections. It was at the heart of the 2009 election violence and nothing
so far has shown that this will change. Haywire
Ido-Osi is the hometown of the former
governor, Segun Oni, who recently defected to the APC and is expected to
pull considerable weight in favour of his new party. Mr. Oni was
recently elected National Vice Chairman of the APC.
But traditionally, the people of Ido-Osi vote
for the PDP. That is not expected to change too. However, Mr. Opeyemi
too has been winning supporters from the local government at a speed
that should worry his opponents. This could go down to the wires.
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