London is recording fewer than 24 new Covid-19 cases a day and could see the virus eradicated within weeks, according to new data.
Analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculated that the 'R' reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in the capital, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days.
The figure shows the capital, once the worst-affected region of the country, is now ahead of every other area in recovering and could see all new cases eliminated by June.
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| Analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculated that the 'R' reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in the capital, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days |
It is believed that London had been on a downward trend in the rate of infections before of the rest of the country because of social distancing measures that were being encouraged on public transport before the lockdown began.
Meanwhile, the North East of England is recording 4,000 daily infections and has an R rate of 0.8, twice that of the capital after seeing a slower increase in cases at the start of the pandemic.
It is vital that this number - which is thought to have been between 3.5 and 4 at the start of the crisis - stays below 1, otherwise the outbreak will start to rapidly spiral again as people infect others around them at a faster rate.
The development has raised suggestions among MPs of a region-by-region easing of lockdown restrictions, as Boris Johnson desperately attempts to kick-start the economy by getting London back to work.
Tory MP Bim Afolami told the Daily Telegraph: 'If you look at other countries, they’ve often adopted regional approaches. If it makes sense from a health perspective, we need to consider it.'
Former Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers added: 'These figures are good news. They show lockdown measures have been working and I think they make the case for further easing of the lockdown in London.
'It’s vital that we do find ways to let the economy recover – and London is the powerhouse of the economy.'
In London, the rate of infections went from a peak of 213,000 people a day on March 23, to 10,000 cases by April 7, when the lockdown had been in place for two weeks.
Experts now say around 15 per cent of residents in the capital have now had the disease already and have built up immunity, which makes it harder for the virus to spread and may explain its low R rate of 0.4.
More white collar jobs in London meant more employees were able to work from home and isolate from others, which also stunts COVID-19's ability to infect people, epidemiologists say.
Public Health England's analysis is now being given to local teams and council to help determine the spread of the virus and level of immunity in their region.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is reportedly considering using regional lockdowns to isolate areas if the local 'R' rate rises above one.
The policy could prove useful in allowing Londoners to return to work as a first step to restarting the economy while other regions wait to lower their reproduction rates.
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