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Wednesday, 31 May 2017

Shock Poll Predicts Theresa May Could Lose This Election And Conservatives Falling Short Of An Overall Majority By 16

YouGov poll nine days before election predicts hung parliament
Theresa May could lose her overall majority in next week's election, according to a shock new poll.
The first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the result by YouGov suggests the Tories could lose 20 seats and Labour could gain 30.
It would mean the Conservatives falling short of an overall majority by 16.
This would be a catastrophic outcome for the Prime Minister, who called the election when the polls were massively in her favour.



Last night YouGov stuck by its controversial new modelling technique which had produced the result. But sources in both main parties cast doubt on the findings.
Mrs May has taken to repeatedly warning that if she loses just six seats, she would lose her majority - handing the keys of Number 10 to Jeremy Corbyn.
The Conservatives' poll rating has fallen in recent days thanks to the unpopularity of the plans in the manifesto for social care.


YouGov's model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats - down from the 330 they had when the election was called.
Labour would get 257 - up from 229, while the Liberal Democrats would gain one to 10.
The modelling allows for big variations, suggesting the Tories could get as high as 345, up 15 - and as low as 274.
The results would still make it harder for Mr Corbyn to become Prime Minister than Mrs May.


YouGov admitted the results were controversial, pointing to significant 'churn' in voting intentions.
But it's chief executive Stephan Shakespeare said the model had been publicly tested during the EU referendum campaign - and always showed Leave ahead.
The model is based on 50,0000 interviews over the course of a week.
Last night both Tories and Labour cast doubt over the findings.
And other pollsters such as ComRes and ICM both report that the Conservatives are still way ahead. 

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